Crystal Palace → Galatasaray · Winter 2027

Will Ismaïla Sarr join Galatasaray? Unlikely for now: 10%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 24 Oct.

10%
Unlikely
first reported 12d agolast moved 12d ago
  1. Rumoured
    24 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

Galatasaray are plotting a fresh move to sign Crystal Palace star Ismaila Sarr in January, sources have told Football Insider 🇹🇷 Should Palace cash in? Vote in article NOW 👇 https://t.co/5VIoefditE https://t.co/JfGcuHEQWm

claims Rumoured+1 pointView on X ↗

Why 10%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
Football Insider advancingBroke ittrust 0.40, 81% faded
+1
In talks over a new contractreported by @footyinsider247 — about the player, not this move
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
10%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457525 Oct26 Oct5 Nov
287 recomputations▼ 4 points over the trail