Valencia → Liverpool · Permanent · Winter 2027

Will David Otorbi join Liverpool? Unlikely for now: 10%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 23 Oct.

10%
Unlikely
first reported 13d agolast moved 10d ago
  1. Rumoured
    23 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

Catch me up

  1. 23 Octfirst@TEAMtalk: Liverpool have contacted Valencia to activate David Otorbi's release clause
  2. 27 OctCooling@footyinsider247: Liverpool will not move for David Otorbi in January if he costs more than £50m
  3. 27 OctJoined by @footyinsider247

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

📞 Liverpool have contacted Valencia as they look to activate David Otorbi's release clause, a report has claimed 🇪🇸 #LFC https://t.co/hjmWML39N4

claims Talks+1 pointView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Liverpool will not make a move for Valencia star David Otorbi in January if he will cost more than £50m, sources have told Football Insider 🇪🇸 Would he be a good fit at Anfield? Vote in article NOW 👇 https://t.co/R4ToBINikG https://t.co/Ptbu1t13Kc

claims Rumoured−1 pointView on X ↗

Why 10%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 84% faded
+1
Football Insider coolingBroke ittrust 0.40, 73% faded, counted at 60%
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
Completion probability
10%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Oct26 Oct6 Nov
318 recomputations▼ 7 points over the trail