Brighton → Real Madrid · Winter 2027

Will Luka Vušković join Real Madrid? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 26 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 10d agolast moved 10d ago
  1. Rumoured
    26 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🆕 Liverpool are monitoring Luka Vuskovic closely as they consider a move for the Brighton defender next summer 👀 Real Madrid and Barcelona are also interested in the 19-year-old 🌟 @FrazFletcher | #LFC #BHAFC https://t.co/fPgsCnKXh8

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457526 Oct27 Oct5 Nov
245 recomputations▼ 2 points over the trail