TransferHype
Winter 2027

Gabriel Martinelli

FW

Arsenal → Galatasaray S.K. · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 12% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    6 Aug
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 6 Augfirst@DiMarzio: itMartinelli has entered Galatasaray's shortlist
  2. 10 AugReached Talks
  3. 10 AugJoined by @JacobsBen
  4. 12 AugJoined by @Plettigoal
  5. 12 AugCooling@Plettigoal: No agreement yet between Gabriel Martinelli and Galatasaray; €45m offer including add-ons submitted to Arsenal in writing.
  6. 13 AugAdvancing@Plettigoal: Galatasaray have submitted a €45m offer for Gabriel Martinelli and are awaiting Arsenal's response.
  7. 14 AugCooling@David_Ornstein: Martinelli's camp says he has no interest in Galatasaray move despite €45m bid from Turkish club
  8. 14 AugJoined by @David_Ornstein, @FabrizioRomano

What was actually said

9 posts in 6 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

Denied outright

Denial2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.85counted at 60%claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano1mo ago ↗

    🚨🇹🇷 Gabriel Martinelli, never close to joining Galatasaray as he doesn’t plan any switch to Turkey now. Rafa Leão remains on Gala shortlist. Update powered by @sportpusula. https://t.co/ZZfPJT81l4

Reported as being in talks

Advancing2 reports, led by @Plettigoal
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.90counted at 36%claims TalksView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal1mo ago ↗no effect

    🚨⤵️ Galatasaray are hoping to receive a response from Arsenal in the coming hours regarding their €45m offer for Gabriel Martinelli. https://t.co/7RG69t8Mp8

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @Plettigoal
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.90counted at 22%claims TalksView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @David_Ornstein1mo ago ↗no effect

    🚨 EXCL: Gabriel Martinelli camp inform Arsenal winger has no interest in joining Galatasaray. #AFC received €45m bid from Turkish club & open to trading if suitable offers arrive but #Galatasaray not on agenda for 25yo Brazil international @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/iFpWOjlES0

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.81counted at 5%claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

itMartinelli has entered Galatasaray's shortlist

JournalistTier 2weighted 0.77counted at 3%claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 12% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+20
Plettigoal denialBroke ittrust 0.90, 89% faded
−3
FabrizioRomano denialBroke ittrust 0.85, 89% faded, counted at 60%
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−5
6 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457515 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 12%15 Aug: 13%15 Aug: 13%15 Aug: 13%15 Aug: 13%15 Aug: 13%16 Aug: 13%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%16 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%23 Aug: 19%28 Aug: 22%28 Aug: 22%28 Aug: 21%28 Aug: 21%28 Aug: 21%28 Aug: 21%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%28 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 11%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%23 Aug: +5 points, with no new post28 Aug: +3 points, with no new post28 Aug: −9 points, with no new post15 Aug28 Aug30 Aug
81 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail
  1. −922d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. +527d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  3. +323d agono new post; decay or a rival moving