AC Milan → Aston Villa · Permanent · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 31% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    25 Aug
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 25 Augfirst@David_Ornstein: Aston Villa make indicative offer to AC Milan over Rafael Leao
  2. 27 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano, @MatteMoretto, @JacobsBen, @DiMarzio
  3. 28 AugCooling@JacobsBen: Aston Villa in talks with Milan but have not yet reached a breakthrough despite Leão being open to the move

What was actually said

9 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancing6 reports, led by @MatteMoretto@FabrizioRomano had it first, 2mo ago

itAston Villa in contact with Milan over Rafael Leão; player prioritises Premier League despite Galatasaray offer

L’Aston Villa ha già comunicato a Rafael Leão che non può pareggiare/avvicinarsi all’ingaggio che gli offre il Galatasaray ma il portoghese dà priorità alla Premier League. Il club inglese è in contatto con il Milan alla ricerca di una soluzione che soddisfi tutte le parti

claims Talks+17 pointsView on X ↗
5 other posts, 3 other sources on the same claim
  • @MatteMoretto2mo ago ↗+3

    itAston Villa working to meet Milan's demands for a permanent deal, ready to adjust terms to close negotiations

    Aggiornamento Rafael Leão. L’Aston Villa è al lavoro per soddisfare le richieste del Milan per un titolo definitivo. Il club inglese è pronto a cambiare le condizioni dell’operazione per avvicinarsi alla chiusura della trattativa. Parti al lavoro. Per Leão è pronto un https://t.co/v5jZsFuAR5

  • @MatteMoretto2mo ago ↗+1

    itAston Villa ahead of Galatasaray for Rafael Leão; English club in contact with Milan to close the deal, with the Portuguese player's willingness being decisive

    L’Aston Villa è avanti sul Galatasaray per Rafael Leão, decisiva la volontà del portoghese. Il club inglese è in contatto con il Milan per arrivare alla chiusura. Le ultime su Youtube: https://t.co/SBrZ5AULjI https://t.co/gnLMvBnj09

  • @JacobsBen2mo ago ↗

    Aston Villa growing in optimism on Rafael Leão, as reported with @alex_crook on @talkSPORT earlier. Galatasaray have made Leão a lucrative offer and have been pushing to finalise all week, but Villa believe they have player buy in as talks continue with Milan.🇵🇹 https://t.co/TF3DWzim0I

  • @FabrizioRomano2mo ago ↗

    🚨🇵🇹 Galatasaray are waiting for Rafa Leão decision after €45m plus add-ons deal agreed yesterday with AC Milan. Unai Emery, pushing to bring him to Aston Villa after a direct contact taking place today with #AVFC manager. Key hours ahead. https://t.co/uhSGSuazMX

  • @DiMarzio2mo ago ↗

    itAston Villa have raised their salary offer to €7.5m per season; negotiations ongoing with AC Milan for final agreement

    Leão continua a dare priorità all’@AstonVilla: gli inglesi hanno rilanciato a 7.5 milioni a stagione l’offerta per l’ingaggio, ora si lavora per l’accordo definitivo con il @acmilan. Resta sempre sullo sfondo il @GalatasaraySK @SkySport

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

🚨 Galatasaray closing in on Rafael Leão despite a push from Aston Villa in the last 24 hours. Galatasaray have an agreement in place with Milan worth around €50m. Villa talks with Milan have not yet resulted in a breakthrough despite optimism yesterday Leão was open to the https://t.co/cNF329hl9O

claims Talks−6 pointsView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @David_Ornstein

🚨 Aston Villa make bid to Crystal Palace for Jean-Philippe Mateta. Lands far below what #CPFC would seek for 29yo striker but #AVFC interest ongoing alongside indicative offer to AC Milan over Rafael Leao. Relates to Ollie Watkins situation @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/ZcwhQysuj6

claims TalksView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @David_Ornstein2mo ago ↗

    🚨 AC Milan accept €45m bid from Galatasaray for Rafael Leao; 27yo attacker offered €10-12m net salary & deciding whether or not to accept #Galatasaray move. Aston Villa discussing loan + buy obligation but #ACMilan want permanent sale now @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/pyTQAPyjde

Why it read 31% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+30
Matteo Moretto advancingBroke ittrust 0.75
+17
Ben Jacobs coolingBroke ittrust 0.55, counted at 60%
−6
Matteo Moretto advancingtrust 0.75, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 36%
+3
Matteo Moretto advancingtrust 0.75, repeating (3rd to say it, 25%), counted at 22%
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−14
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
31%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: −11 points, after @JacobsBen28 Aug28 Aug28 Aug
5 recomputations▼ 11 points over the trail
  1. −112mo ago@JacobsBen: Aston Villa in talks with Milan but have not yet reached a breakthrough despite Leão being open to the move