🚨 AC Milan accept €45m bid from Galatasaray for Rafael Leao; 27yo attacker offered €10-12m net salary & deciding whether or not to accept #Galatasaray move. Aston Villa discussing loan + buy obligation but #ACMilan want permanent sale now @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/pyTQAPyjde
AC Milan → Galatasaray · Permanent · Summer 2026
✓ Confirmedreported done by several independent sources · 2mo ago
69%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 3mo agolast moved 2mo ago
- Rumoured26 Jul
- Talks26 Jul
- Agreement27 Aug
- Medical29 Aug
- Done28 Aug
Catch me up
- 26 Julfirst@DiMarzio: itGalatasaray offers loan with right of redemption for Leao; Milan wants permanent sale
- 4 AugJoined by @MatteMoretto
- 6 AugCooling@DiMarzio: itAC Milan rejected a Galatasaray offer of around €30m plus €5m in bonuses for Leao
- 10 AugJoined by @JacobsBen
- 15 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano
- 27 AugAdvancing@David_Ornstein: AC Milan accept €45m bid from Galatasaray; Leao offered €10-12m net salary and deciding on move
- 27 AugJoined by @David_Ornstein
- 27 AugReached Agreement
- 28 AugJoined by @Plettigoal
- 28 AugReached Done
- 29 AugReached Medical
What was actually said
21 posts in 7 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Reported as being in talks
Advancing3 reports, led by @David_Ornstein@MatteMoretto had it first, 3mo ago2 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
- @FabrizioRomano2mo ago ↗
🚨🟡🔴 Galatasaray are closing in on Rafa Leão deal after getting initial green light from the player to proceed with the move. Aston Villa in contact over last 12 hours again but Gala are set to move forward and close the agreement with Leão. €45m plus add-ons to AC Milan. https://t.co/sb2QOZxxXr
- @MatteMoretto3mo ago ↗
itGalatasaray intensifying efforts to sign Rafael Leão
Il Galatasaray alza il pressing per Rafael Leão. Le ultime su Youtube: https://t.co/jjFHiFa7gs https://t.co/6TWyO2VgI6
Reported as done
Advancing7 reports, led by @DiMarzioitRafael Leao to Galatasaray SK, €40m fixed fee plus bonuses to AC Milan
claims DoneView on X ↗
6 other posts, 3 other sources on the same claim
- @MatteMoretto2mo ago ↗
Rafael Leão in chiusura definitiva al Galatasaray. https://t.co/7TzBXLNkpi
- @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗
🚨💥 BREAKING | Rafael Leao to Galatasaray - DONE DEAL ✔️ Full agreement reached with AC Milan. Leao and Galatasaray have also agreed on personal terms, with Leao saying YES to the move as revealed. 100 % agreement between Leao/Gala. €45m total package with €43m guaranteed https://t.co/AAIGfDhhXn
- @MatteMoretto2mo ago ↗
itLeão to Galatasaray completed for €45m plus bonuses, €12m net per season
È fatta per Leão al Galatasaray. Operazione chiusa con il Milan sulla base di 45 milioni di euro più bonus. Al portoghese 12 milioni di euro netti a stagione. https://t.co/wFi0nFJVKj
- @JacobsBen2mo ago ↗
Rafa Leão arrives in Istanbul this afternoon to formalise his move to Galatasaray.✈️ https://t.co/zU0XRAhtpq
- @DiMarzio2mo ago ↗
itRafa Leao will sign a contract with Galatasaray until 2030 at €10m net per year plus bonuses
Rafa Leao firmerà con il @GalatasaraySK un contratto fino al 2030, stipendio da 10 milioni netti l'anno più bonus @SkySport https://t.co/J0ePJyxq5A
- @DiMarzio2mo ago ↗
itLeao to Galatasaray for €45m total (€43m fixed + €2m bonus) plus 20% sell-on clause
Leao al @GalatasaraySK, le cifre: pacchetto totale da 45 milioni all'@acmilan, 43 fisso + 2 bonus, più il 20% sulla rivendita. 🤝🏻 @skysport https://t.co/EFNUCoN3Rh
Reported as agreed
Advancing4 reports, led by @Plettigoal@FabrizioRomano had it first, 2mo agoclaims AgreementView on X ↗
3 other posts, 3 other sources on the same claim
- @JacobsBen2mo ago ↗
🚨 Galatasaray closing in on Rafael Leão despite a push from Aston Villa in the last 24 hours. Galatasaray have an agreement in place with Milan worth around €50m. Villa talks with Milan have not yet resulted in a breakthrough despite optimism yesterday Leão was open to the https://t.co/cNF329hl9O
- @FabrizioRomano2mo ago ↗
🚨🇵🇹 Galatasaray are waiting for Rafa Leão decision after €45m plus add-ons deal agreed yesterday with AC Milan. Unai Emery, pushing to bring him to Aston Villa after a direct contact taking place today with #AVFC manager. Key hours ahead. https://t.co/uhSGSuazMX
- @DiMarzio2mo ago ↗
itLeao has agreed to Galatasaray, deal closing with AC Milan
Leao ha dato l'ok al @GalatasaraySK che è ora in chiusura @acmilan @Plettigoal @SkySport
Reported at medical stage
Advancing2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano@Plettigoal had it first, 2mo agoclaims MedicalView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
- @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗
🚨🛫 Today is Rafael Leão day at Galatasaray. As revealed yesterday, Leão will fly to Istanbul today. Four-year contract until 2030. €45m total package: €43m guaranteed + €2m in bonuses. 20% sell-on clause. Salary: €10m net per year + bonuses. A move to Aston Villa was https://t.co/KcLqWJJmdM
Mentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Mentioned, no claim either way
Neutral2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto@DiMarzio had it first, 3mo agoitGalatasaray pursuing Rafael Leão as priority; Milan insists on permanent sale only at €50-60m, rejecting loan with obligation
claims TalksView on X ↗
Said to be cooling
Cooling2 reports, led by @JacobsBen@DiMarzio had it first, 3mo agoclaims TalksView on X ↗
Why it read 69% before it settled
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+99
David Ornstein advancingBroke ittrust 0.75
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−31
6 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
69%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- +332mo ago@Plettigoal: Agreement between Rafael Leão and Galatasaray is in place, though Galatasaray's confidence depends on Aston Villa not increasing their offer · @DiMarzio: Rafael Leao to Galatasaray SK, €40m fixed fee plus bonuses to AC Milan · @MatteMoretto: Rafael Leão in definitive closure to Galatasaray · @JacobsBen: Galatasaray have an agreement in place with Milan worth around €50m for Rafael Leão · @Plettigoal: Rafael Leao to Galatasaray done deal, €45m total package with €43m guaranteed