FC Bayern MunichReal Madrid · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 10% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    19 Jun
  2. Talks
  3. Agreement
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Catch me up

  1. 19 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid could make a €220m offer to sign Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise this summer
  2. 19 JunJoined by @MirrorFootball, @FabrizioRomano, @Plettigoal, @DiMarzio, @JacobsBen
  3. 20 JunReached Talks
  4. 1 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Kylian Mbappe trying to convince Michael Olise to join Real Madrid from Bayern Munich
  5. 5 JulDenial@FabrizioRomano: Dayot Upamecano denies Michael Olise is leaving for Real Madrid, stating he is staying
  6. 15 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Michael Olise wants to join Real Madrid and could be available
  7. 18 JulDenial@MirrorFootball: Real Madrid has practically no chance of signing Olise next year
  8. 24 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Michael Olise sees Real Madrid as his preferred next destination, with PSG also interested
  9. 25 JulDenial@FabrizioRomano: Bayern director Freund denies Olise-Real Madrid move, confirms he will stay at Bayern

What was actually said

18 posts in 6 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano@Plettigoal had it first, 3mo ago
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal3mo agono effect

    🚨❌ FC Bayern have also received confirmation from Michael Olise’s camp that there have been no talks, meetings or negotiations with Real Madrid so far. No offer from Real Madrid either. Bayern are not open to negotiations. Olise has not expressed any desire to leave. Instead, https://t.co/ErU54CMauu

Reported as a live interest

Advancing3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 3mo ago
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.40counted at 60%claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo agono effect

    Michael Olise has reportedly decided that he 'wants' to join Real Madrid, and he could be available. Full story 👇 https://t.co/gqohtHJ5x4

  • @TEAMtalk3mo agono effect

    Kylian Mbappe trying to convince Michael Olise to join Real Madrid from Bayern Munich #rmcf #fcbayern https://t.co/FC6VxULgul

Denied outright

Denial8 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano@Plettigoal had it first, 3mo ago
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 22%claims RumouredView on X ↗
7 other posts, 4 other sources on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano2mo agoname shared — matched from contextno effect

    🚨⛔️ Bayern’s Uli Hoeneß: “Real Madrid wanted Olise? I laughed my head off”. “The Emperor of China could come to us and we still wouldn't negotiate”. “The same goes for Luis Díaz”. 🔴⚪️🔐 https://t.co/WDxhDe00V4

  • @Plettigoal2mo agono effect

    🚨❌ As exclusively reported and confirmed again today by FC Bayern with Christoph Freund: Michael Olise is staying as things stand. No negotiations. No offer from Real Madrid, following Florentino Pérez’s promise to Bayern not to pursue Olise this summer. No transfer request https://t.co/gREDp5iDWi

  • @FabrizioRomano3mo agono effect

    🚨 Dayot Upamecano when asked about Michael Olise and Real Madrid: “He’s staying!”, told @kerry_hau @skysportde. https://t.co/V1GE4ewjmG

  • @MirrorFootball2mo agoname shared — matched from contextno effect

    "I don't think Real Madrid has a chance. I'd say the possibility of Olise playing for Madrid next year is practically zero." https://t.co/Z1qqovbmDU https://t.co/nNa0Rgq67B

  • @Plettigoal3mo agono effect

    🚨🚨 Real Madrid officially clarify regarding Michael Olise: • No direct or indirect contact has been made with the player, his representatives, or anyone from his entourage. • The club state that recent reports and speculation “do not correspond to reality.” • Real Madrid https://t.co/zI5o7K7XMY

  • @DiMarzio3mo agoname shared — matched from contextno effect

    itReal Madrid denies contact with Bayern Munich over Olise

    Il @realmadrid smentisce i contatti per Olise del @FCBayern https://t.co/9uJQJNI3LX

  • @JacobsBen3mo agono effect

    Real Madrid deny any contact with Michael Olise despite links with the Bayern attacker. Bayern have never considered a sale for any price to any club this summer. Real's current priority is to add a central midfielder.⚪️ https://t.co/XxCnqkb1pS

Denied outright

Denialone report
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 3%claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 3mo ago
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.40counted at 0%claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk3mo agono effect

    🤑Real Madrid could make a €220m offer to sign Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise this summer. 🤝While Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez now has an ‘agreeement in principle’ to join the La Liga giants... https://t.co/vElnf5Txhr

  • @MirrorFootball3mo agono effect

    Bayern Munich are planning to offer Michael Olise a lucrative new contract amid interest from Real Madrid and Liverpool 🤑🔒 https://t.co/BaiEetvjiZ https://t.co/FIkz0OrsgS

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report
AggregatorTier 4weighted 0.20counted at 0%claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 10% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Signed a new contractreported by @Plettigoal — about the player, not this move
−2
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
18 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
10%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

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67 recomputations 2 points over the trail
  1. 321d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. 321d agono new post; decay or a rival moving