Bayern Munich → Real Madrid · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 10% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    19 Jun
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 19 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid could make a €220m offer to sign Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise this summer
  2. 19 JunJoined by @MirrorFootball, @FabrizioRomano, @Plettigoal, @DiMarzio, @JacobsBen
  3. 20 JunReached Talks
  4. 1 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Kylian Mbappe trying to convince Michael Olise to join Real Madrid from Bayern Munich
  5. 5 JulDenial@FabrizioRomano: Dayot Upamecano denies Michael Olise is leaving for Real Madrid, stating he is staying
  6. 15 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Michael Olise wants to join Real Madrid and could be available
  7. 18 JulDenial@MirrorFootball: Real Madrid has practically no chance of signing Olise next year
  8. 24 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Michael Olise sees Real Madrid as his preferred next destination, with PSG also interested
  9. 25 JulDenial@FabrizioRomano: Bayern director Freund denies Olise-Real Madrid move, confirms he will stay at Bayern

What was actually said

19 posts in 6 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano@Plettigoal had it first, 5mo ago

🚨 Real Madrid informed Bayern days ago about intention not to break relationship for Michael Olise. Florentino Pérez would love to sign Olise but only if/when Bayern open doors; NOT happening this summer so far. 🔦 Real, focused on Diomande now. 🎥 https://t.co/kU0DAY6e7l https://t.co/utI5J6UzVb

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal5mo ago ↗

    🚨❌ FC Bayern have also received confirmation from Michael Olise’s camp that there have been no talks, meetings or negotiations with Real Madrid so far. No offer from Real Madrid either. Bayern are not open to negotiations. Olise has not expressed any desire to leave. Instead, https://t.co/ErU54CMauu

Reported as a live interest

Advancing3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 4mo ago

⭐️Michael Olise sees Real Madrid as his preferred next destination, amid interest from PSG ✍️@GraemeBailey | #RMFC https://t.co/wdZPKwZWhG

claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    Michael Olise has reportedly decided that he 'wants' to join Real Madrid, and he could be available. Full story 👇 https://t.co/gqohtHJ5x4

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    Kylian Mbappe trying to convince Michael Olise to join Real Madrid from Bayern Munich #rmcf #fcbayern https://t.co/FC6VxULgul

Denied outright

Denial9 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano@Plettigoal had it first, 5mo ago

🚨🔴⚪️ Bayern director Freund confirms Michael Olise will NOT leave: “Olise-Real Madrid? That's not a topic for us at all. He will play an important role for FC Bayern this season again”. Real Madrid efforts are completely focused on Yan Diomande after opening bid. ⚪️🇨🇮 https://t.co/wBPRI5rPQQ

claims RumouredView on X ↗
8 other posts, 4 other sources on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano3mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    🚨⛔️ Bayern’s Uli Hoeneß: “Real Madrid wanted Olise? I laughed my head off”. “The Emperor of China could come to us and we still wouldn't negotiate”. “The same goes for Luis Díaz”. 🔴⚪️🔐 https://t.co/WDxhDe00V4

  • @Plettigoal3mo ago ↗

    🚨❌ As exclusively reported and confirmed again today by FC Bayern with Christoph Freund: Michael Olise is staying as things stand. No negotiations. No offer from Real Madrid, following Florentino Pérez’s promise to Bayern not to pursue Olise this summer. No transfer request https://t.co/gREDp5iDWi

  • @FabrizioRomano4mo ago ↗

    🚨 Dayot Upamecano when asked about Michael Olise and Real Madrid: “He’s staying!”, told @kerry_hau @skysportde. https://t.co/V1GE4ewjmG

  • @MirrorFootball4mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    "I don't think Real Madrid has a chance. I'd say the possibility of Olise playing for Madrid next year is practically zero." https://t.co/Z1qqovbmDU https://t.co/nNa0Rgq67B

  • @Plettigoal5mo ago ↗

    🚨🚨 Real Madrid officially clarify regarding Michael Olise: • No direct or indirect contact has been made with the player, his representatives, or anyone from his entourage. • The club state that recent reports and speculation “do not correspond to reality.” • Real Madrid https://t.co/zI5o7K7XMY

  • @DiMarzio5mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    itReal Madrid denies contact with Bayern Munich over Olise

    Il @realmadrid smentisce i contatti per Olise del @FCBayern https://t.co/9uJQJNI3LX

  • @JacobsBen5mo ago ↗

    Real Madrid deny any contact with Michael Olise despite links with the Bayern attacker. Bayern have never considered a sale for any price to any club this summer. Real's current priority is to add a central midfielder.⚪️ https://t.co/XxCnqkb1pS

  • @FabrizioRomano12d ago ↗

    🚨 Bayern’s Uli Hoeneß on Olise and Real Madrid: “That's all nonsense. Michael has a contract with us until 2029. So we're not thinking about that right now”. “We'll talk to him about extending his contract during the season. If he doesn't want to by then, we'll just wait and https://t.co/W8eiPZJSJR

Denied outright

Denialone report

🚨 OFFICIAL: Real Madrid statement deny any agreement on personal terms with Michael Olise, pointing at relationship with FC Bayern. “In response to reports in various media outlets regarding an alleged interest from our club in Bayern Munich player Michael Olise, Real Madrid CF https://t.co/8XJbKRfK5K

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 5mo ago

Jose Mourinho wants Michael Olise and Alessandro Bastoni at Real Madrid #rmcf https://t.co/29lRsVJZbh

claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk5mo ago ↗

    🤑Real Madrid could make a €220m offer to sign Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise this summer. 🤝While Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez now has an ‘agreeement in principle’ to join the La Liga giants... https://t.co/vElnf5Txhr

  • @MirrorFootball5mo ago ↗

    Bayern Munich are planning to offer Michael Olise a lucrative new contract amid interest from Real Madrid and Liverpool 🤑🔒 https://t.co/BaiEetvjiZ https://t.co/FIkz0OrsgS

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

📝 £190m bid 📝 Sensational swap deal 📝 New Bayern contract Real Madrid have now spoken out on a move for Michael Olise More: https://t.co/vzda1wRdA4 https://t.co/3EgFF4zun3

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 10% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Contract news at his clubreported by @Plettigoal — about the player, not this move
−2
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
18 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
10%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations▼ 2 points over the trail
  1. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting