TransferHype
Winter 2027

Fábio Vieira

MF

Arsenal → Hamburger SV · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedreported done by several independent sources · 19d ago
88%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 2mo agolast moved 19d ago
  1. Rumoured
    24 Jul
  2. Talks
    24 Jul
  3. Agreement
    30 Aug
  4. Medical
    30 Aug
  5. Done
    30 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 24 Julfirst@Plettigoal: Hamburger SV and Arsenal in direct contact with concrete figures exchanged; Vieira hoping for agreement
  2. 30 AugReached Agreement
  3. 30 AugReached Medical
  4. 30 AugReached Done
  5. 30 AugJoined by @JacobsBen

What was actually said

10 posts in 5 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancing3 reports, led by @Plettigoal
2 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal19d ago ↗no effect

    🚨✍️ Fabio Vieira is a new Hamburger SV player. Medical completed. Contract signed. Announcement soon.

  • @JacobsBen19d ago ↗no effect

    Hamburg confirm Fabio Vieira has joined from Arsenal.✍️ https://t.co/5TH369tsSj https://t.co/T7MWPxjvVT

Reported at medical stage

Advancing3 reports, led by @Plettigoal
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 60%claims MedicalView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal20d ago ↗no effect

    🚨🛬 THE PICTURES | Here is Fábio Vieira arriving at Hamburg Airport. He is accompanied by his adviser Hendrik Schauerte (Gestifute) and HSV boss Claus Costa. The medical is now underway. #HSV ▫️ Contract until at least 2030 ▫️ Fee: €9m fixed 📸: Kevin Cifci @SkySportDE 🇵🇹 https://t.co/7d1r3MMmAL

  • @Plettigoal20d ago ↗no effect

    🚨⤵️ NEW DETAILS | Fábio Vieira has passed his medical. Signing tomorrow. Contract until 2030. €9m fixed fee, no bonuses, but a small sell-on clause. Vieira only wanted to join #HSV. https://t.co/rxoPwO7l9Z

Reported as agreed

Advancing2 reports, led by @Plettigoal
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 36%claims AgreementView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @JacobsBen21d ago ↗no effect

    Hamburg closing in on a deal to sign Arsenal midfielder Fabio Vieira for around £8.5m. Club-to-club agreement verbally in place pending only final details.🇵🇹 https://t.co/Ncm4huZUpS

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 2%claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 1%claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 88% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+97
Plettigoal advancingBroke ittrust 0.55
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−11
9 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
88%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%29 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 82%30 Aug: 82%30 Aug: 82%30 Aug: 82%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 83%30 Aug: 82%30 Aug: 82%31 Aug: 82%31 Aug: 82%31 Aug: 75%31 Aug: 75%31 Aug: 74%31 Aug: 74%31 Aug: 74%31 Aug: 74%1 Sept: 88%30 Aug: +68 points, after @Plettigoal, @Plettigoal, @Plettigoal, @JacobsBen, @Plettigoal31 Aug: −7 points, with no new post1 Sept: +14 points, after @JacobsBen29 Aug30 Aug1 Sept
43 recomputations▲ 74 points over the trail
  1. +6820d ago@Plettigoal: Advanced negotiations ongoing between Hamburger SV and Arsenal over permanent deal; final details being discussed with expectation of completion within 24 hours. · @Plettigoal: Fabio Vieira waiting for final agreement between clubs before travelling for medical; deal expected to complete within hours. · @Plettigoal: Permanent transfer to Hamburger SV completed with long-term contract until 2030 and fixed fee of at least €9m · @JacobsBen: Hamburg closing in on deal to sign Arsenal midfielder Fabio Vieira for around £8.5m with club-to-club agreement verbally in place pending final details · @Plettigoal: Fábio Vieira arriving at Hamburg for medical, €9m fixed fee, contract until 2030
  2. +1418d ago@JacobsBen: Fabio Vieira has joined Hamburg from Arsenal
  3. −720d agono new post; decay or a rival moving