TransferHype
Winter 2027

Fábio Vieira

MF

Arsenal → Hamburger SV · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedreported done by several independent sources · 2mo ago
88%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 4mo agolast moved 2mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    24 Jul
  2. Talks
    24 Jul
  3. Agreement
    30 Aug
  4. Medical
    30 Aug
  5. Done
    30 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 24 Julfirst@Plettigoal: Hamburger SV and Arsenal in direct contact with concrete figures exchanged; Vieira hoping for agreement
  2. 30 AugReached Agreement
  3. 30 AugReached Medical
  4. 30 AugReached Done
  5. 30 AugJoined by @JacobsBen

What was actually said

10 posts in 5 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancing3 reports, led by @Plettigoal

🚨💥 BREAKING | Fábio Vieira back to Hamburger SV - DONE DEAL ✔️ Full agreement reached between HSV and Arsenal over a permanent transfer. All final details have been clarified. Permanent deal. Long-term contract at least until 2030. Fixed fee of at least €9m. Difficult deal, https://t.co/knU9TBOWjW

claims Done+1 pointView on X ↗
2 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗

    🚨✍️ Fabio Vieira is a new Hamburger SV player. Medical completed. Contract signed. Announcement soon.

  • @JacobsBen2mo ago ↗

    Hamburg confirm Fabio Vieira has joined from Arsenal.✍️ https://t.co/5TH369tsSj https://t.co/T7MWPxjvVT

Reported at medical stage

Advancing3 reports, led by @Plettigoal

🚨⤵️ Fabio Vieira is NOT in Hamburg yet despite reports. He is waiting for the final agreement between the clubs before travelling for his medical. Matter of hours. But it’s happening. https://t.co/uXK0IpEGX0

claims MedicalView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗

    🚨🛬 THE PICTURES | Here is Fábio Vieira arriving at Hamburg Airport. He is accompanied by his adviser Hendrik Schauerte (Gestifute) and HSV boss Claus Costa. The medical is now underway. #HSV ▫️ Contract until at least 2030 ▫️ Fee: €9m fixed 📸: Kevin Cifci @SkySportDE 🇵🇹 https://t.co/7d1r3MMmAL

  • @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗

    🚨⤵️ NEW DETAILS | Fábio Vieira has passed his medical. Signing tomorrow. Contract until 2030. €9m fixed fee, no bonuses, but a small sell-on clause. Vieira only wanted to join #HSV. https://t.co/rxoPwO7l9Z

Reported as agreed

Advancing2 reports, led by @Plettigoal

🚨💣 EXCL | Advanced negotiations are ongoing between Hamburger SV and Arsenal over a permanent deal for Fabio Vieira. The clubs are discussing the final details. There is a feeling that the deal could be completed within the next 24 hours. Vieira and #HSV are 100% in https://t.co/U6niYUM8QA

claims AgreementView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @JacobsBen2mo ago ↗

    Hamburg closing in on a deal to sign Arsenal midfielder Fabio Vieira for around £8.5m. Club-to-club agreement verbally in place pending only final details.🇵🇹 https://t.co/Ncm4huZUpS

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🚨🆕 Hamburger SV and Arsenal remain in direct contact over Fabio Vieira. Concrete figures have now been exchanged between the clubs. All of HSV’s new signings are independent of a potential Vieira deal. Vieira is hoping for an agreement. He loves the club, the city and the https://t.co/YkX9vphN6s

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🆕 Fabio Vieira still wants to join Hamburger SV. A long-term contract has already been agreed. #HSV and Arsenal remain in contact almost daily. However, there has been less progress recently, with Arsenal currently demanding up to €18 million as part of the total package. https://t.co/yMsbjsWCQm

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 88% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+97
Florian Plettenberg advancingBroke ittrust 0.55
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−11
9 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
88%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457530 Aug: +68 points, after @Plettigoal, @Plettigoal, @Plettigoal, @JacobsBen, @Plettigoal31 Aug: −7 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting1 Sept: +14 points, after @JacobsBen29 Aug30 Aug1 Sept
43 recomputations▲ 74 points over the trail
  1. +682mo ago@Plettigoal: Advanced negotiations ongoing between Hamburger SV and Arsenal over permanent deal; final details being discussed with expectation of completion within 24 hours. · @Plettigoal: Fabio Vieira waiting for final agreement between clubs before travelling for medical; deal expected to complete within hours. · @Plettigoal: Permanent transfer to Hamburger SV completed with long-term contract until 2030 and fixed fee of at least €9m · @JacobsBen: Hamburg closing in on deal to sign Arsenal midfielder Fabio Vieira for around £8.5m with club-to-club agreement verbally in place pending final details · @Plettigoal: Fábio Vieira arriving at Hamburg for medical, €9m fixed fee, contract until 2030
  2. +142mo ago@JacobsBen: Fabio Vieira has joined Hamburg from Arsenal
  3. −72mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting