Real MadridArsenal · Winter 2027

13%
Unlikely
first reported 15h agolast moved 15h ago
  1. Rumoured
    19 Sept
  2. Talks
  3. Agreement
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Why 13%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk neutralBroke ittrust 0.51
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
Completion probability
13%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457519 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%19 Sept: 13%20 Sept: 13%19 Sept19 Sept20 Sept
12 recomputations 0 points over the trail