⛔️🇧🇷 José Mourinho stops any January exit for Endrick as he did when Aston Villa, AC Milan and AS Roma asked for the Brazilian in August. Club + coach on the same page on Endrick, Vini Jr and more. ⤵️ @DAZN_ES @DAZNFutbol https://t.co/d0PHSYec8S
Real Madrid → Arsenal · Winter 2027
Will Endrick join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 19 Sep.
8%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 1mo ago
- Rumoured19 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 3 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- since 9 Oct · 3 posts
- since 7 Oct · 3 posts
- ArsenalRumouredquiet 1mo ago8%since 19 Sept · 3 posts
Catch me up
- 19 Septfirst@TEAMtalk: Arsenal in contact with Endrick's camp; talks with Real Madrid to be held in coming days
- 5 OctCooling@TEAMtalk: Arsenal interested in Endrick, but Real Madrid have no intention of selling in January; a loan is possible
- 16 OctJoined by @FabrizioRomano
What was actually said
3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Denied outright
Denialone reportSaid to be cooling
Coolingone reportclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Reported as being in talks
Advancingone reportclaims TalksView on X ↗
Why 8%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Fabrizio Romano denialBroke ittrust 0.82, 94% faded
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- −619d agono new post: we re-read the reporting