Real Madrid → Arsenal · Winter 2027

Will Endrick join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 19 Sep.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    19 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

Catch me up

  1. 19 Septfirst@TEAMtalk: Arsenal in contact with Endrick's camp; talks with Real Madrid to be held in coming days
  2. 5 OctCooling@TEAMtalk: Arsenal interested in Endrick, but Real Madrid have no intention of selling in January; a loan is possible
  3. 16 OctJoined by @FabrizioRomano

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

⛔️🇧🇷 José Mourinho stops any January exit for Endrick as he did when Aston Villa, AC Milan and AS Roma asked for the Brazilian in August. Club + coach on the same page on Endrick, Vini Jr and more. ⤵️ @DAZN_ES @DAZNFutbol https://t.co/d0PHSYec8S

claims Rumoured−1 pointView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Real Madrid have no intention of selling Endrick in January, amid interest from Arsenal and other sides ❌ BUT a loan is possible, with the Brazilian forward frustrated by his lack of minutes under Jose Mourinho ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #RMCF #AFC https://t.co/16yktkdPXH

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Arsenal in contact with Endrick's camp, who will hold talks with Real Madrid in the coming days @GraemeBailey | #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/qc75R2gRr2

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Fabrizio Romano denialBroke ittrust 0.82, 94% faded
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457518 Oct: −6 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting19 Sept13 Oct5 Nov
1150 recomputations▼ 5 points over the trail
  1. −619d agono new post: we re-read the reporting