Real Madrid → Aston Villa · Loan · Winter 2027

Will Endrick join Aston Villa? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 7 Oct.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 29d agolast moved 20d ago
  1. Rumoured
    7 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

Catch me up

  1. 7 Octfirst@TEAMtalk: Aston Villa's move for Endrick is gaining traction; a loan departure from Real Madrid is on the cards
  2. 11 OctJoined by @footyinsider247
  3. 16 OctDenial@FabrizioRomano: José Mourinho stops any January exit for Endrick as Aston Villa asked for him in August
  4. 16 OctJoined by @FabrizioRomano

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

⛔️🇧🇷 José Mourinho stops any January exit for Endrick as he did when Aston Villa, AC Milan and AS Roma asked for the Brazilian in August. Club + coach on the same page on Endrick, Vini Jr and more. ⤵️ @DAZN_ES @DAZNFutbol https://t.co/d0PHSYec8S

claims Rumoured−1 pointView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

Aston Villa's move for Endrick is said to be gaining traction after TEAMtalk revealed a loan departure from Real Madrid is on the cards 👀 #AVFC #RMFC https://t.co/j8aZYNp9sS

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

💥 "It does seem that Aston Villa are very much interested in Endrick if he becomes available, and they could look to sign him in January." Should Unai Emery's men make a move to sign the sensation - tell us your view. 🫵 🔗 https://t.co/CXjh9riYLP https://t.co/X0021piuv8

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Fabrizio Romano denialBroke ittrust 0.82, 94% faded
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457516 Oct: −8 points, after @FabrizioRomano7 Oct15 Oct5 Nov
705 recomputations▼ 8 points over the trail
  1. −820d ago@FabrizioRomano: José Mourinho stops any January exit for Endrick as Aston Villa asked for him in August