Bayern Munich → Aston Villa · Winter 2027

Will Kim Min-Jae join Aston Villa? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 21 Sep.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    21 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 2mo ago

Kim Min-jae is facing an uncertain future at Bayern Munich 👀 Tottenham and Aston Villa are among the clubs interested in the defender ⤵️ @FrazFletcher | #THFC #AVFC https://t.co/qJiDevwzlZ

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗

    Aston Villa are reportedly in the mix to sign Bayern Munich centre-back Kim Min-jae in January 👀 #AVFC https://t.co/ukN6J59IUJ

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457521 Sept2 Oct6 Nov
1117 recomputations▼ 6 points over the trail