Bayern Munich → Arsenal · Winter 2027

Will Kim Min-Jae join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 15 Oct.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 22d agolast moved 16d ago
  1. Rumoured
    15 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

Arsenal are reportedly considering a move for Bayern Munich star Kim Min-jae, but he currently intends to stick with the Bundesliga giants. Full link 👇 https://t.co/HcwRYASdwb

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk16d ago ↗

    🔴 Bad news for Arsenal in regard to signing Kim Min-jae from Bayern Munich #AFC #FCBayern https://t.co/NnCo5rrxiY

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🔴 Arsenal linked with January move for Bayern Munich defender Kim Min-jae #AFC #FCBayern https://t.co/5OAGSjhPxB

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457516 Oct: −4 points, after @TEAMtalk15 Oct20 Oct5 Nov
516 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail
  1. −420d ago@TEAMtalk: Arsenal considering a move for Bayern Munich's Kim Min-jae, but he intends to stay with Bayern