Arsenal and Tottenham are ready to ramp up their interest in Bayer Leverkusen star Ibrahim Maza, but they face competition... 👀 PSG are now showing interest in the 20-year-old attacker, too ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #AFC #THFC https://t.co/7kX5Ajrt8P
Bayer 04 Leverkusen → Arsenal · Winter 2027
Will Ibrahim Maza join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 4 posts since 27 Sep.
9%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 7d ago
- Rumoured27 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 4 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- ArsenalRumoured9%since 27 Sept · 4 posts
- since 29 Oct · 2 posts
- since 29 Oct · 1 post
- since 28 Oct · 4 posts
What was actually said
4 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Mentioned, no claim either way
Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk
Reported as a live interest
Advancing2 reports, led by @TEAMtalkclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 9%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk neutralBroke ittrust 0.52, 65% faded
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- +51mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
- −38d agonews on a rival destination