TransferHype
Winter 2027

Erling Haaland

FW

Manchester City → Arsenal · Summer 2027

Will Erling Haaland join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 4 posts since 29 Sep.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 26d ago
  1. Rumoured
    29 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

4 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Erling Haaland is being increasingly linked with a move away from Manchester City after the club were found guilty of 114 Premier League financial breaches, though TEAMtalk understands there has been no contact between the striker and Arsenal. https://t.co/ac4yq2aj6j

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 1mo ago

🔴⚪️🇳🇴 Unexpected boost for Arsenal in the race to sign Erling Haaland Link 👇 https://t.co/46h5egTo4N

claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk1mo ago ↗

    ❗️ A second source has confirmed Arsenal will make a serious move for Erling Haaland who'll push to leave Man City if they're relegated #AFC #MCFC Full details 📎 https://t.co/J612ig3Ts2

  • @TEAMtalk1mo ago ↗

    🚨 Arsenal DO have the funds to submit a huge bid for Erling Haaland, but Barcelona are favourites to sign the striker 🎙️ @GraemeBailey with the latest on the #MCFC star, via our new podcast #AFC #FCB https://t.co/JJ6uAt8RjX

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Sept: −4 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Sept7 Oct5 Nov
906 recomputations▼ 4 points over the trail
  1. −41mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting