Manchester City → Bayern Munich · Summer 2027

Will Erling Haaland join Bayern Munich? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 22 Sep.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    22 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

🔴Bayern Munich are NOT looking to sign Erling Haaland in the immediate future, while an insider has revealed Pep Guardiola has met with the German giants #MCFC #FCBayern https://t.co/x7Qio0V9Lt

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🆕 Bayern Munich have identified Erling Haaland as their dream replacement for Harry Kane! The Bundesliga giants are putting an ambitious plan in place as they prepare for Kane's eventual departure 👀 @GraemeBailey | #MCFC https://t.co/cE3kIK7g6C

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Oct8 Oct6 Nov
706 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail