Brighton → Newcastle · Winter 2027

Will Yasin Ayari join Newcastle? Unlikely for now: 7%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 5 Oct.

7%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    5 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Newcastle are planning ahead for January, with Brighton midfielder Yasin Ayari on their radar if contract talks continue to stall on the south coast 👀 #NUFC #BHAFC https://t.co/UBGOVlZdjb

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 7%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
7%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457521 Oct: −4 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination5 Oct21 Oct5 Nov
756 recomputations▼ 6 points over the trail
  1. −415d agonews on a rival destination