Sporting CP → Sunderland · Winter 2027

Will Geny Catamo join Sunderland? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 14 Sep.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 16d ago
  1. Rumoured
    14 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 6 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

Sunderland are ready to make another big attempt to sign Sporting CP winger Geny Catamo in January 🔥 However, they will face competition for the 25-year-old, with Newcastle among his other suitors... ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #SAFC #NUFC https://t.co/yqtifDxlsC

claims Rumoured+1 pointView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Sunderland remain interested in Sporting CP winger Geny Catamo, but they'll face intense competition in January 👀 Newcastle, Brighton, Brentford and Nottingham Forest are also interested in the 25-year-old 🔥 @GraemeBailey | #SAFC #NUFC https://t.co/6uJt1xY0Cy

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 88% faded
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457521 Oct: +13 points, after @TEAMtalk7 Oct24 Oct5 Nov
708 recomputations▲ 7 points over the trail
  1. +1315d ago@TEAMtalk: Sunderland ready to make another big attempt to sign Geny Catamo in January