Barcelona → Chelsea · Permanent · Winter 2027

Will Fermín López join Chelsea? Unlikely for now: 7%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 28 Oct.

7%
Unlikely
first reported 9d agolast moved 6d ago
  1. Rumoured
    28 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

🚨 EXCLUSIVE 🚨 Sources confirm Chelsea and PSG are both prepared to make BIG offers for Fermin Lopez @daiIybriefing Barcelona are under pressure to sell, meaning Fermin could move if the money is right...💰👀 Full story to follow... https://t.co/vwZmgOeGPP

claims Rumoured+1 pointView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

💰 Chelsea are planning a big move for Barcelona ace Fermin Lopez, a report has claimed 🗞️ #CFC #FCB https://t.co/BV5ty7c5Ku

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk6d ago ↗

    🔴 Man Utd have reportedly joined Chelsea in the race for Barcelona star Fermin Lopez 🌟 #MUFC #CFC https://t.co/kbqX5iIh0C

Why 7%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
CaughtOffside advancingBroke ittrust 0.40, 70% faded
+1
Signed a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−5
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
7%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Oct: +5 points, after @TEAMtalk28 Oct29 Oct5 Nov
203 recomputations▲ 2 points over the trail
  1. +58d ago@TEAMtalk: Chelsea are planning a big move for Barcelona ace Fermin Lopez