Barcelona → Manchester United · Winter 2027
Will Fermín López join Manchester United? Unlikely for now: 4%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 31 Oct.
4%
Unlikely
first reported 6d agolast moved 5d ago
- Rumoured31 Oct
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 3 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- since 28 Oct · 3 posts
- since 28 Oct · 1 post
- Manchester UnitedRumoured4%since 31 Oct · 3 posts
What was actually said
3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Denied outright
Denialone reportReported as a live interest
Advancingone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 4%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.52, 46% faded
−4
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 54% faded, counted at 60%
+1
Signed a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−4
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
4%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.