Real Madrid → Arsenal · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 2% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    25 Jul
  2. Talks
    25 Jul
  3. Agreement
    2 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 25 Julfirst@David_Ornstein: Arsenal exploring move to sign Vinicius Junior from Real Madrid; interest early stage, clubs not yet in talks but idea approved at all levels
  2. 25 JulJoined by @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk
  3. 25 JulDenial@MirrorFootball: Jose Mourinho bans Arsenal from signing Vinicius Jr
  4. 25 JulReached Talks
  5. 25 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Arsenal interested in Vinicius Junior and have held talks
  6. 26 JulDenial@MirrorFootball: Real Madrid president has made clear his stance against Vinicius Jr moving to Arsenal
  7. 26 JulAdvancing@MirrorFootball: Arsenal ready to improve Vinicius Junior's salary to sign him from Real Madrid
  8. 27 JulJoined by @Plettigoal
  9. 1 AugCooling@TEAMtalk: Vinicius Junior has not agreed personal terms with Arsenal
  10. 2 AugReached Agreement
  11. 2 AugAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Arsenal have made a breakthrough in efforts to sign Vinicius Junior with a deal now partially agreed
  12. 5 AugReached Done
  13. 5 AugJoined by @JacobsBen
  14. 5 AugCooling@MirrorFootball: Arsenal's transfer hopes for Vinicius Jr suffer a blow as Real Madrid change their stance on the player

What was actually said

38 posts in 9 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

🔴⚪️🇧🇷 Arsenal have reportedly made a 'breakthrough' in their efforts to sign Vinicius Junior with a deal now partially 'agreed' Full details 📎 https://t.co/wDuCGexsCc

claims AgreementView on X ↗

Reported as done

Advancingone report

How Arsenal could line up after signing Bruno Guimaraes and completing Vinicius Jr transfer https://t.co/E0SHiYlzDz https://t.co/3hBmGpNM2p

claims DoneView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

🔴 Vinicius Junior has NOT agreed on personal terms with Arsenal 👇 #AFC https://t.co/PY3jsiViq9

claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancing2 reports, led by @David_Ornstein

🚨 EXCL: Arsenal exploring move to sign Vinicius Junior from Real Madrid. #AFC interest early stage + clubs not yet in talks but idea approved at all levels. Much rests on contract process as no breakthrough yet & #RMFC do not want free exit @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/qYdS5vlfE6

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    Arsenal reportedly remain confident about signing Vinicius Junior and they want two Real Madrid players. Full story 👇https://t.co/bt5wLNBUEP

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @MirrorFootball

Real Madrid change Vinicius Jr stance as Arsenal transfer hopes suffer blow https://t.co/S9ovOEO58O https://t.co/FsfPsvye5S

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    💔 Vinicius Jr to Arsenal looks off 🤩 Liverpool strike huge contract agreement 🤑 Man Utd exploring £60m deals https://t.co/lrYATIIKPA

Reported as being in talks

Advancing10 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

🔴 Along with Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City are also interested in Vinicius Junior and have held talks, sources tell TEAMtalk @GraemeBailey | #AFC #LFC #MCFC #RMCF https://t.co/k3jXGZ3dQ9

claims TalksView on X ↗
9 other posts, 3 other sources on the same claim
  • @David_Ornstein3mo ago ↗

    🚨 Vinicius Junior future entering crucial stage - talks in coming days over extension at Real Madrid, free exit 2027 or join Arsenal now. #AFC all in & 26yo winger attracted by opportunity if no #RMFC renewal. W/ @MarioCortegana @gunnerblog @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/9cMEiffQfN

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    NEW: Arsenal are 'ready to improve' Vinicius Junior's £400,000-a-week salary to sign the Real Madrid star, breaking a club record 🤑 https://t.co/06kikGNkyg https://t.co/IdlB97i80G

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Vinicius Jr has already promised to join club as Arsenal handed transfer timeline https://t.co/HZVeZffFwA https://t.co/cOXR2S6WYG

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴 Mikel Arteta is personally trying to convince Vinicius Junior to join Arsenal, according to the Spanish media #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/0KTwmeLVxd

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Arsenal 'optimistic' over Vinicius Jr deal 👀 https://t.co/9LaquN1ubv https://t.co/AaQQwbjoc8

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    Vinicius Junior is set to hold fresh talks with Real Madrid's hierarchy ⌛️ Mikel Arteta is making a personal push, having outlined his Arsenal vision to the superstar winger 🔥 @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/zjCFvvPClA

  • @JacobsBen3mo ago ↗

    It was always viewed as a big week for Vinicius Jr. Player/Real both seeking quick clarity rather than an August saga. Real chose to react to Arsenals' offer with a new proposal rather than sticking to previous one, and are now waiting on Vini Jr. Decision imminent.⬇️ https://t.co/axlTYOX8GX

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Vinicius Jr final transfer decision imminent as Arsenal players 'think deal is done' https://t.co/tcaPaeJ5Tw

  • @JacobsBen3mo ago ↗

    It was always viewed as a big week for Vinicius Jr. Player/Real both seeking quick clarity rather than an August saga. Real chose to react to Arsenal's offer with a new proposal rather than sticking to previous one, and are now waiting on Vini Jr. Decision imminent.⬇️ https://t.co/axlTYOX8GX

Denied outright

Denial4 reports, led by @MirrorFootball

Jose Mourinho bans Arsenal from signing Vinicius Jr ❌ https://t.co/KZ875K9ZOc https://t.co/ymOYnCfEW2

claims RumouredView on X ↗
3 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    ❌ Vinicius Jr to Arsenal off 👀 Rodri has 'picked' his next club 🤩 Man Utd and Arsenal scout goal machine 🌊 Liverpool making waves with triple deal in their sights https://t.co/lrYATIIKPA

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴 Vinicius Junior wants to stay at Real Madrid and not move to Arsenal, according to a Spanish journalist #RMCF #AFC https://t.co/OGB78nfYsv

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Real Madrid president has already made Vinicius Jr to Arsenal stance very clear https://t.co/Hq4QYzJDK1 https://t.co/oFfqvSM6CU

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral4 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@MirrorFootball had it first, 3mo ago

🚨 Arsenal ready to offer Vinicius Junior the biggest contract in the club's history - but that may not be enough to secure a deal with SIX major question marks over a transfer emerging https://t.co/VZdlhqWkCP #AFC #RMCF #transfers

claims TalksView on X ↗
3 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Arsenal learn fee and transfer conditions to sign Vinicius Jr from Real Madrid https://t.co/b5ThOZDxeO https://t.co/sidfkeqpOP

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🇧🇷 Vinicius Junior sees his next contract as 'career-defining', and Real Madrid have sent him a new offer But Arsenal have reportedly launched 'Operation Vinicius' ⤵️ #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/yb9IfkJETI

  • @Plettigoal3mo ago ↗

    🚨💣 Understand Real Madrid have now sent a counter-offer to Vinicius Jr. and his camp to extend his contract. Real are hoping to reach an agreement after months of negotiations. The club are aware of Arsenal’s interest. Arsenal are preparing a first official offer and are https://t.co/74Y9Rq8QCf

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral13 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@MirrorFootball had it first, 3mo ago

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Arsenal plan to sign Bruno Guimaraes, Julian Alvarez and Vinicius Jr Full details 📎 https://t.co/WOVCo4vGhq

claims RumouredView on X ↗
12 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    NEW: Arsenal are 'exploring' signing Vinicius Junior from Real Madrid in a blockbuster transfer move Full story 👇 https://t.co/hL50Hx01mP https://t.co/clIpquEQWT

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴 Vinicius Junior from Real Madrid to Arsenal is POSSIBLE #rmcf #afc https://t.co/ZudZCkXqV8

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴 Arsenal warned: Real Madrid want €160m for Vinicius Junior, according to a report 👀 #afc #rmcf https://t.co/OZk2qUuWoP

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    ‼️ Jose Mourinho's stance on Vinicius Junior to Arsenal has emerged ⤵️ #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/aTWJD5gR61

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    Real Madrid told to approve Arsenal's Vinicius transfer because 'they cannot rely' on him https://t.co/cxZ4oZea2m https://t.co/SLsLqWWqdJ

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴 How much Arsenal are willing to offer Vinicius Junior in salary has emerged #AFC https://t.co/5P4d7kf9ER

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    Real Madrid told to approve Arsenal's Vinicius transfer because 'they cannot rely' on him https://t.co/vikCI6k2ti https://t.co/JWuo4a1x9X

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Vinicius Jr's agent gave transfer advice as Arsenal plot move for Real Madrid superstar https://t.co/udptxAKsG9

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    👀 Arsenal are expected to sanction a shock sale if signing Bruno Guimaraes and Vinicius Junior, and Man Utd are now exploring a move Full story 📎 https://t.co/X4N6GnBB72

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Arsenal could still add another blockbuster signing aside from Vinicius Jr or Bruno Guimaraes https://t.co/yOXlorO2Zh https://t.co/IJ7iLpoyKs

  • @David_Ornstein3mo ago ↗

    🚨 Real Madrid raise contract offer to Vinicius Junior. Proposal said to reflect 26yo’s importance to #RMFC & project. Decision time for Brazil int’l - renewal, await free agency next summer (club want to avoid) or pursue Arsenal opportunity @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/WvftHt6y84

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Jose Mourinho’s three things he wants from Vinicius Jr as Arsenal transfer outcome awaits https://t.co/k2E2xwLVNc https://t.co/SUqPBGZRpo

Why it read 2% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+17
Contract news at his clubreported by @FabrizioRomano — about the player, not this move
−10
Contract news at his clubreported by @David_Ornstein — about the player, not this move
−3
Contract news at his clubreported by @JacobsBen — about the player, not this move
−1
51 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
2%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug: −21 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations▼ 28 points over the trail
  1. −212mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting