Chelsea → Paris Saint-Germain · Winter 2027

Will Estêvão Willian join Paris Saint-Germain? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 27 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 10d agolast moved 10d ago
  1. Rumoured
    27 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 4 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🔵 Chelsea will allow PSG to sign Estevao in January on three conditions #CFC Full story 📎 https://t.co/v7v0tdKUDD

claims Talksname shared — matched from contextView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457527 Oct28 Oct5 Nov
227 recomputations▼ 2 points over the trail